Macrotrends
Events
The baseline International Monetary Fund’s forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024.
Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.
World Economic Outlook, for July 2023
World Economic Outlook, for July 2023
Upon analyzing the results of 2022, the World Bank (WB) presented an updated World GDP Rating
Source: Basetop
China
30327
USA
25463
India
11875
Japan
5702
Russia
5327
Germany
5310
Indonesia
4037
Brazil
3837
France
3770
UK
3657
Turkey
3181
Italy
3053
Mexico
2743
Republic of Korea
2585
Canada
2273
Spain
2182
Saudi Arabia
2150
Egypt
1675
Australia
1627
Poland
1625
Iran
1601
According to forecasts of the World Bank, in 2024 Russia's GDP will grow by 1.2%, in 2025 it will grow by 0.8% as the economy stabilizes and investments and exports partially recover. Real GDP of the entire region of Europe and Central Asia will grow by 1.4% in 2023.
The ASEAN region will remain one of the world's fastest growing regions in 2023, however, economic growth is likely to decline slightly from 2022. This is largely due to the deterioration of global economic conditions and tightening of monetary policy.
In the second half of the year, conditions are likely to arise that are more favorable for organic growth, as lower inflation provides central banks with more rate flexibility. This should complement the growth of economic activity in China.
The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region ranked among world's fastest growing regions in 2022 — Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast Southeast Asian economic growth of 5.5 percent in 2022.
However, we are entering 2023 with many developing economic problems. Some of them will undoubtedly hinder economic growth around the world. Thus, ADB recently revised its 2023 forecast for ASEAN to 4.7 percent as global demand weakens.
Source: Statista
It is worth noting that forecasts vary, and this may depend in part on how organizations classify the region. Credit Suisse analysts expect the growth of six ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — to decline down to 4.4 percent in 2023 from a projected 5.6 percent in 2022.
These figures suggest that regional economic growth is slightly above the global average. The IMF predicts global economic growth at 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. Thus, ASEAN remains an attractive destination for international investment, giving investors access to one of the world's fastest growing regions.
According to UNCTAD*, global foreign direct investment (FDI) decreased by 12% in 2022 down to $1.3 trillion. The decrease was mainly due to a decrease in financial flows and operations in developed countries.
Actual investment trends were more positive, with new investment project announcements growing in most regions and sectors. FDI in developing countries increased slightly, although growth was concentrated in several large emerging economies. Inflows to many small developing countries remained flat, while FDI to least developed countries (LDCs) declined.
Industry trends showed an increase in the number of projects in infrastructure and industries that face the need to restructure the supply chain, including electronics, automotive and mechanical engineering.
The ASEAN region will remain attractive for foreign direct investment, with trends in commercial and public investment likely to remain consistent throughout the year, despite the more complex macroeconomic situation.
*Report on World Investment at the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
*Eabr
EDB analysts shared insights into the key trends observed in the global economy and their repercussions on Eurasia. The imposition of tighter monetary conditions around the world, primarily in developed nations, has notably curbed consumer price growth.
However, this policy has significantly increased borrowing costs for households and businesses. Consequently, the global trend of economic slowdown not only persists but has preconditions for exacerbation. High interest rates are expected to be a key factor contributing to the low GDP growth rates in the U.S. and euro area in 2024. While the U.S. economy may likely evade recession, a decline in consumption will decelerate GDP growth from 2.3% in 2023 to 1.0% in 2024. Economic growth in the euro area is projected to remain feeble, hovering around 0.9% in 2024 after 0.5% in 2023. China’s GDP growth is anticipated to average close to 4% between 2024 and 2026.
Source: EDB analysts' calculations, 2023.
The subdued global economic growth is expected to restrain the demand for commodities, thereby constraining the potential for increased export earnings in most EDB economies. However, the proactive utilisation of internal growth sources has led to an improvement in the 2023 estimate and 2024 projections. The persistent implementation of stimulating fiscal policies and structural transformations foster an environment conducive to investment and consumer activity. EDB analysts forecast a 2% growth in the region’s GDP by the end of 2024.
