Macrotrends

The main global trends, according to analysts at the IMF, WTO, World Economic Outlook, Seabury, Economic Data Factbook, etc., can be called a slowdown in the global economy and the expectation of a protracted recession. High inflation will negatively affect the volume of world trade and the index of business activity.

Trend 1: Inflation has slowed down but remains elevated

Eurozone
USA
Inflation target

Sources: National State Agencies, Bloomberg, EDB staff estimation

Trend 2: Final phase of monetary tightening cycle

Eurozone (ECB)
USA (Fed)

Sources: National State Agencies, Bloomberg, EDB staff estimation

Trend 3: Weakening of business activity

Sources: National State Agencies, Bloomberg, EDB staff estimation

Consumer price growth rates have decreased, but inflation risks remain
The trend towards higher interest rates in the US and the eurozone is highly likely to be completed
The trend of declining economic activity in the world is not only incomplete, but also has prerequisites for strengthening