Impact of long-term macroeconomic trends on prospects for container transportation in Trans-Eurasian connection

Long-term prospects for global economy

Downward trend
Upward trend
Stagnation trend
Average Forecast 2023-2028

Source: IMF, UN, World Bank

Global Growth Centers — Southeast Asian Economies, India
In China, despite the slowdown and negative demographic trends, high growth rates are expected. High investment activity will continue, but the structure will change in favoгr of intangible assets
Еhe economies of Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia are also promising
The European economy will continue to stagnate

Forecast of export cargo transportation (railway)

In the basic scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development in the medium term will be able to maintain transit container transportation through the infrastructure of RZD at the level of 2022.

Container transit

Traceca
Via the Far East
Central Asia - East Asia
Via Kazakhstan
Northern Sea Route

Source: National Statistical Offices, Eurostat, World Bank, EDB Analyst Calculations

Development of potential transportation to/from Central Asia

Coal
Consumer products
Fertilizers
Oil and petroleum products
Grain products
Other products
Ferrous metals
Construction materials

Transit to/from Central Asia through the railway network of Russia. Source: National Statistical Offices, Eurostat, World Bank, EDB Analyst Calculations

Machinery and equipment
Plastics, rubber
Ferrous metals
Consumer products
ТVehicles
Other products
Chemical Products
Non-ferrous metals
Leather and leather goods

The trend of increasing demand for transit transportation from Central Asian countries is expected to continue. Russian companies have opportunities for growth in this market, including by entering assets in these countries and building competitive services.

In 2023, container transportation at RZD OJSC network continues to increase

2020
2021
2022
2023

In July 2023, transportation of selected goods in containers showed growth

2021
2022
2023

Transportation of cars and spare parts in containers in January — July 2023 increased by 102.8%

2021
2022
2023

January-July 2022
January-July 2023

Trends and structure of transportation of timber cargo in containers

Total transportation of timber cargo on RZD OJSC network
Lumber in containers
Plywood and veneer in containers
Particle boards in containers
Other timber cargo in containers

Trends of transportation of timber cargo in containers in 2012-2023

In 2012-2018, an increase in the volume of transportation of timber cargo on the RZD OJSC network was accompanied by an increase in the transportation of timber cargo in containers. However, starting from 2018, despite the negative trends of timber cargo transportation, the growth of shipments in containers continued.
In 2012-2022, the volume of transportation of timber cargo in containers increased by 4.5 times.
In 2023, the pace with a general decrease in the loading and shipment of timber cargo in containers increases, which contributes to an increase in the share of timber cargo in containers in the total volume of transportation of timber cargo.